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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/26 11:03

   Wheat Trending Higher at Midday

   Corn is narrowly mixed at midday, soybeans are 5 to 7 cents higher, and 
wheat is flat to 3 cents higher. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 400. The dollar index is 15 
higher. Interest rate products are mostly firmer. Energies are mixed with crude 
up $0.20. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed midday with trade holding the lower end of the 
range with trade struggling to follow soybeans and wheat. Ethanol margins 
remain tight with ethanol futures holding the low end of the range, with the 
weekly report showing a production bump of 14,000 barrels per day, while stocks 
were down 63,000 barrels. Corn basis remains steady, with little change in 
recent days but more open weather should help movement along with March basis 
contracts coming due this week. USDA announced 123,000 metric tons of 
optional-origin corn sold to South Korea. On the March contract support is the 
lower Bollinger Band and the fresh lows at $3.70 marked yesterday, with 
resistance at the lower Bollinger band at $3.73, which are just below.


   Soybean trade is 5 to 8 centS higher with trade finding better buying 
mid-morning as trade closes back in on $9.00 on the May contract. Meal is $5.00 
to $6.00 higher, and oil flat to 10 points lower. South America continues to 
make good progress with weather and harvest moving forward with little change 
on the horizon with some rain delays in Brazil keeping harvest off the average 
pace. The Brazilian ral remains very cheap as well hurting US export 
competitiveness near term with new lows scored this week. New crop soybeans 
will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in 
the U.S. with positive action today. The March soybean chart support is the 
lower Bollinger Band at $8.69, with resistance the 20-day at $8.85, which we 
are testing at midday.


   Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade looking to continue to hold 
the lower end of the range and light buying again after early weakness. Weather 
threats for the Plains remain limited with mostly warmer short-term weather 
after the recent rain and snow. Kansas City is at an 85-cent discount to 
Chicago, with choppy action so far while Minneapolis is back to a 22 cent 
discount as well, narrowing sharply from last weeks action. Partial condition 
reports Monday showed no major issues so far for the plains states. World 
export business has been quieter in recent days. The March Kansas City chart 
support is $4.50 with resistance the lower Bollinger Band at $4.54, which we 
are just above at midday. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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