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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/28 11:36
Hogs Keep Trading Higher on Strong Export Sales
No new cash cattle trade has been reported at this point, but trade could
begin to develop this afternoon.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed as the live cattle and lean hog
contracts are trading mildly higher, but the feeder cattle complex can't trade
higher while corn prices are up $0.13 to $0.15. No new cash cattle trade has
been reported yet, but packer interest is expected to develop throughout the
day. May corn is up 15 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.90.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23.21 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 12,700 mt for 2024
were up 15% from the previous week and 4% from the previous 4-week average. The
three primary buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and China
(2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 55,300 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high --
were up 64% from the previous week and 74% from the prior 4-week weighted
average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (32,800 mt), Japan (5,700 mt) and
Australia (5,400 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading higher as the market is hoping that
today's cash cattle trade will fight for steady prices. There were some cattle
traded in the South at $186 plus Wednesday afternoon, but there weren't enough
traded to say that the market has established any sort of trend. Packers would
love to move the week's weighted average down $1.00 or $2.00, but feedlots are
equally convicted to keeping prices as strong as possible. Asking prices in the
South are noted at $186 plus, and in the North at $300 to $302. April live
cattle are up $0.72 at $184.32, June live cattle are up $0.85 at $179.47 and
August live cattle are up $0.90 at $177.57.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.28 ($308.30) and select up $2.68
($301.11) with a movement of 88 loads (62.09 loads of choice, 9.14 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 16.31 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With nearby corn prices rallying $0.13 to $0.15, the feeder cattle complex
is back in retreat mode as the market hits another hurdle. The live cattle
complex is trading higher and lending some technical support, but with corn
prices up considerably, feeders aren't finding much support in today's market.
April feeders are down $0.50 at $246.37, May feeders are down $0.57 at $247.70
and August feeders are up $0.07 at $257.97.
LEAN HOGS:
Given the marketing year high reported in this morning's export report, the
lean hog complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour with expectations that
the day's supportive nature will continue through the afternoon and into the
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. April lean hogs are up $0.87 at $86.90, June
lean hogs are up $0.70 at $102.27 and July lean hogs are up $0.57 at $104.55.
Demand is also spilling in from the morning's higher note in pork cutout
values, which is surprising given that the rib alone dropped $7.02.
The projected lean hog index for 3/27/2024 is up $0.39 at $84.64 and the
actual index for 3/26/2024 is up $0.56 at $84.25. Hog prices are higher on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.48 with a weighted average price of
$81.50, ranging from $74.50 to $84.00 on 2,345 head and a five-day rolling
average of $80.89. Pork cutouts total 119.59 loads with 101.74 loads of pork
cuts and 17.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.71, $94.77.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com.
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